How Do We Get Baseball Players to Stop Doping? - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com
There is absolutely no way taking performance enhancing drugs makes the difference between a 5% chance of being signed and a 95% chance of being signed. It may take him from 5% to 6% or even 10% but I’d bet even that doubling of the chance is a far stretch.
If the difference was that great the number of non-doping players would dwindle to almost nothing as the number of people willing to do whatever it takes to get signed overwhelms the relatively small number of available slots.
Drugs give outliers a slight push that takes them slightly beyond other outliers. It doesn’t turn average performers into outliers.