Here are three possible worlds, and within each possible world three different planets are shown on the X axis, while three different times are shown on the Y axis. The three worlds correspond to three different times when the great filter might occur: 1) before any life, 2) before intelligent life, or 3) before space colonization.
After at first thinking you are in a random box, you update on the fact that your planet recently acquired intelligence, and conclude you are somewhere in the middle row. Then you update on self-indication, i.e., that you exist, and so are in an orange box. You conclude you likely live in world 3. (It has 3/5 of the orange boxes.) Doom awaits!